mardi 3 mars 2009

Warren Buffett négatif sur 2009

Ø       De l'encre rouge au Wall Street! DJIA -4.2%, S&P500 -4.7%, NSDQ -4%

Ø       Le Dow a cassé la barrière de 7000 pour la première fois depuis 1997. S&P au plus bas depuis Oct 1996.

Ø       AIG a annoncé une perte colossale : $61.7 milliards

Ø       HSBC cherche a placer GBP 12.5 milliards via une émission des droits. Les actions HSBC perdent 19% !

Ø       Warren Buffett a déclaré que l'économie sera en pagaille cette année, et encore. Sa société Berkshire Hathaway a annoncé sa plus mauvaise année financière en 2008.

Ø       Augmentation de la volatilité : VIX +14% @ 52.65

Ø       Marchés asiatiques aussi plus bas. Le banque centrale de l'Australie n'a pas baissé son taux directeur (décision inattendue). Le taux reste à 3.25%. Les investisseurs qui cherchent du rendement revient sur les devises AU$ et NZ$.

Ø       L'or remonte vers $925. La chute du prix depuis une semaine a été probablement excessive.

Ø       Le baril reste dans un « couloir » entre $40 et $45. Niveau actuel $40.4

Ø       Un peu de « stress » de nouveau dans les marchés monétaires. Le spread entre le taux Treasury 3m et le taux cash est au plus haut depuis 2 mois (ce qui montre que les banque hésitent à accorder des prêts).

Ø       $ un peu plus faible à 1.2660 mais la zone € reste sous pression. On attend encore des mauvais chiffres économiques qui pousseraient l'ECB a baissé son taux directeur cette semaine (réunion 5 Mars).

Ø       10-2yr monte à 142 bps. 5yr and 3 yr CMS quasi inchangé: 275 and 231 bps respectivement.

Ø                          Europe positif ce matin : +1% 

 

 

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