Reading market performances, comparing indexes, and understanding the major market moves

Reading market performances, comparing indexes, and understanding the major market moves

Did you already look at the market from a relative point-of-view?

• SwissTS teaches people to trade successfully on the Swiss, European, or American Market.
   

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• SwissTS gives you professional investment advice, based on solid recommendations and analytical support (financial and technical analysis based on charts), so that you will know what to buy, when to buy it, at which price to buy -- following a safe investment profile!

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DEXIA souhaite se débarrasser de 900 employés

Tellement de cash à investir: DJ +1.25%, S&P500 +1.5%, NASDAQ +1.2%, NIKKEI +0.8% et EUROSTOXX -1.1%, et en hausse de 1.2% en ce moment.

INFLATION : les prix en Allemagne sont au même niveau qu’il y a un an et sont en retrait d’environ 0,4% en Belgique par rapport à mai 2008. La raison en est essentiellement le retrait des prix pétroliers (effet de base). Toutefois, le brent est fortement à la hausse depuis février, d’une part (impact « reflatoire ») et les acteurs économiques comparent de plus en plus (BELGACOM va demander à ses fournisseurs de baisser leur prix jusqu’à 20%). Difficile d’y voir clair : le prix du riz vendu par DELHAIZE est soit stable pour la marque 365 et en hausse de 30% sur un an pour la marque DELHAIZE. La hausse persistante du chômage limitera logiquement un retour de l’inflation. La source possible d’un retour de l’inflation est encore les matières premières mais cela prendra un peu de temps, dans la foulée des marchés émergents.

INDE : croissance du PIB supérieure aux attentes au Q1 à +5.8% (5% attendus) grâce à la construction et les dépenses publiques (en période électorale, il est vrai).

BANQUES : DEXIA souhaite se débarrasser de 900 employés, dont 270 en Belgique et engager 200 commerciaux de haut niveau pour renforcer ses équipes belges. On parle également d’une possible vente de DEXIAM et de la branche assurance, tout en confirmant que l’on croit toujours au modèle de bancassurance. Là aussi difficile d’y voir clair.

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est en retrait à 31.7. L’or est forte hausse à 967 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) également à 63.8 USD. Le USD baisse face à l’EUR à 1.40. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.97. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.87 et le 3 ans à 2.18.

 

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UK : le nombre de millionnaires en GBP divisé par deux à cause de la chute des bourses et de l'immobilier

Inversion de tendance en fin de séance en Europe après la sortie de l’indice de confiance américiain.

ECONOMIE US : la fin de la récession est attendue vers la fin du 3^e trimestre mais il ne faut pas trop compter sur un rebond en V. L’Europe devrait suivre avec un trimestre de décalage. La confiance des consommateurs américains a fortement rebondi en mai de 39.2 à 54.9 et 42.6 attendu, essentiellement grâce à la composante « anticipations ».

UK : le nombre de millionnaires en GBP a été divisé par deux par rapport à 2007, passant de près de 489.000 à 242.000, à cause de la chute des bourses et de l’immobilier. Ce phénomène est bien sûr significatif pour les activités de gestion de fortune.

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est en baisse à 30.6. L’or est en baisse à 949 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est en hausse à 60.6 USD. Le USD est stable à l’EUR à 1.40. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.92. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.84 et le 3 ans à 2.21.

 

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Consommation de pétrole en baisse pour 2009, mais exploration réduite

Faiblesse en fin de séance vendredi à New York malgré le soutien des valeurs exportatrices portées par la faiblesse du billet vert. Les bourses anglaise et américaine sont fermées aujourd’hui.

IFO : l’indicateur de confiance des businessmen allemand est attendu en hausse pour le 2^e mois consécutif à 85, en réaction au plan de relance et aux fortes baisses de taux. INFINEON a annoncé que le plus bas pour son chiffre d’affaires avait été atteint en mars et que la situation devait, dès lors, s’améliorer.

PETROLE : soulagement pour les économies du Proche-Orient depuis que le pétrole est repassé au-dessus des 50 USD le baril. La consommation de pétrole est attendue en baisse pour l’ensemble de 2009 mais l’exploration de nouveaux gisements s’est aussi réduite, de 20%, ce qui explique la correction positive de l’or noir.

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est en légère hausse à 32.6. L’or progresse à nouveau à 954 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est stable à 60 USD. Le USD est stable à l’EUR à 1.40. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.95. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.85 et le 3 ans à 2.17.

 

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How interest rates impact on the economy, forex, and stocks

What impact does each tiny move on interest rates have on the economy, on currency (forex) and on companies (stocks)?

1. Reducing the interest rate causes a depreciation on the currency.
   Indeed, the lower the interest rate, the easier it becomes for people to borrow money...
    

2. But at the same time, the incentive to save money disappears too.
    

3. As a result, people tend to spend more money (moving around more of their own currency, and increasing liquidity on the market).
    

4. This creates a negative balance on the currency itself when expressed against foreign currencies.
    

5. Spending more money means increasing the supply of money without a demand being high enough for that same currency. The consequence of increasing the supply (spending more) creates a shift in the supply curves: more money is supplied than what is demanded.
    

6. Finally, the currency depreciates, an the economy "heats up".
    

7. As product and service supply is limited, prices will increase, which will start building inflation.

For foreign exhange trading (forex), you must first understand the fundamentals behind the currency market. You must learn how interest rates impact on the economy, and how political decisions make Wall Street jump or dump. 

At SwissTS - Swiss Trading Secrets, we bring you a practical, easy-to-understand teaching of technical analysis.
We will make you practice your new skills in real-market conditions, again and again, until you feel it becomes a second nature of yours. .
Read more about the Swiss Trading Education Courses.

Contraction du PIB prévue par la Fed

Peu de clarté : les marchés rebondissent, le Vix baisse mais l’or continue à progresser alors que l’on est en pleine désinflation. Le pétrole progresse rapidement et le dollar baisse.

UK : Standard&Poors envisage de baisse la note de crédit du R-U, qui est actuellement AAA, en raison des craintes de dégradation des finances publiques. On est sans doute à la veille de pas mal de révision au niveau des dettes étatiques.

Economie US : la Réserve fédérale estime que le produit intérieur brut de la première économie mondiale devrait se contracter de 1,3% à 2,0% en 2009. Ses précédentes prévisions, datant de février, tablaient sur un recul de 0,5% à 1,3%

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) repasse à 31.4. L’or explose à 951 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) progresse à 60 USD. Le USD est en baisse à l’EUR à 1.394. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.90. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.74 et le 3 ans à 2.10.

 

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Confiance des consommateurs au plus haut en Belgique

CONSOMMATION : la confiance des consommateurs est au plus haut depuis octobre en Belgique  et le sentiment relatif aux anticipations est également en nette amélioration. A croire que l’on ne sonde que les travailleurs et pas les chômeurs (près d’un ouvrier sur quatre en chômage technique en Belgique). Ceci est à mettre en perspective avec l’évolution des marchés financiers depuis deux mois.

VIX : passe sous la barre des 30 à 28.8. Bonne nouvelle également pour les bourses !

BANQUES : ABN-FORTIS pourrait se défaire de 4000 à 5000 collaborateurs. Sans grande surprise !

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est à 28.8. L’or est en hausse à 927.6 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est stable à 58.6 USD. Le USD est inchangé à l’EUR à 1.36. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.87. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.70 et le 3 ans à 2.07.

 

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Stabilisation du marché immobilier anglais

GBP : la livre se reprend dans un contexte de stabilisation du marché immobilier anglais, qualifié par certains non résidents de « screaming buy ». Les institutionnels étrangers aussi se réintéressent vivement à la « perfide » Albion, en raison du potentiel d’appréciation de la monnaie, en net retrait par rapport à sa moyenne historique longue.

Banques : Lloyds a placé 4 mrds de GBP afin de rembourser une partie des actions préférentielles détenues par l’Etat britannique ; son patron Victor Blank se retire. Le nouveau patron de la Soc Gen, Patrick Oudéa, n’exclut pas de nouvelles dépréciations.

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est stable autour de 33. L’or remonte à 931 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est stable à 55.7 USD. Le USD est stable face à l’EUR à 1.347. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.87. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.66 et le 3 ans à 2.02.

 

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US jobless claims data worsen

·       Markets shrug off the worse-than-estimated US jobless claims data, which rose by 32k to a level of 637k.

·       Tech sector rallied after better results from CA Inc. Financial stocks in the S&P rose 4%.

·       Borrowing costs in the US market (as reflected by 3 mnth Libor rates) dropped the most in 8 weeks, indicating that govt efforts to unlock the credit markets are working.

·       VIX drops back to 31.37. For info, the record high was 80.86 in November and the average over its 19yr history is 20.11.

·       Gold stuck around $926. Price has gained 4.5% over the past 2 weeks.

·       Oil price slightly higher @ $58.70. 2 week price gain is +10%.

·       € drops back slightly vs $: 1.3580. €zone CPI and GDP data to be released this morning. Concerns that the €zone economy may have shrank at the fastest pace in 13yrs!

 

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Want to learn the secrets behind technical analysis?

Want to learn the secrets behind technical analysis?

• How do the different technical analysing tools interact?

• Why can one not follow only a small bunch of indicators?

• What's the difference between MA (Moving Average) and Exponential MAs?

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• What about Volatility and Standard Deviation?

Learning theory about technical indicators is only a start.

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KBC: Rumeurs sur le marché

Banques européennes : l’action KBC suspendue aujourd’hui à la demande de la société même en réaction aux rumeurs sur le marché. Les membres du personnel de DEXIA qui sont aussi actionnaires (vi a le PEA) de la banque «belgo »-française pourraient contre la nomination de Dehaene et Mariani, en raison de leurs émoluments. DEXIA a publié de meilleurs résultats aux Q1. Les financières européennes pourraient être sous pression ces jours-ci (publication de résultats). Le FMI demande aux banques européennes de passer également un stress-test.

CHINE : la production industrielle a crû moins que prévu (+7.3% en avril a/année) à cause de la baisse de l’électricité et des exportations en berne mais la consommation a pris le relais (+14.5%).

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) baisse à nouveau  32. L’or remonte à 928 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) remonte à 58.3 USD. Le USD est stable face à l’EUR à 1.37. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.76. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.71 et le 3 ans à 2.12.

 

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Pause attendue sur le rally

·       Aux USA on termine bien la semaine: DJIA +1.96%, S&P+2.41%, NSDQ +1.33%. Les chiffres sur le chômage (539000 emplois perdus en Avril) étaient moins mauvais qu'attendus. Il y avait aussi qqs bonnes nouvelles venant du marché de l'immobilier. Les résultats des « stress tests » rassurent un peu les investisseurs : sur la semaine, les financiers dans le S&P500 gagnent 23%.

·       Attention quand même : il y a pas mal de spéculation que ce rally va faire une pause pendant qu'on attend que les fondamentaux rattrapent le mouvement.

·       Sur la semaine GM a perdu 11%. La société se glisse tjs vers la faillite.

·       VIX @ 32.05. Son plus bas depuis la chute de Lehman.

·       Le prix du baril retombe après avoir touché son plus haut depuis 6 mois. Le marché pense que le 10% des gains de la semaine passée n'est pas soutenable à court terme. Le baril est maintenant @ $57.78

·       L'or stable @ $914. Techniquement on pourrait aller plus haut. Les gestionnaires des Hedge funds ont augmenté leurs positions longues.

·       Les investisseurs qui recherchent plus de risque et plus de rendement ont pesé sur le $ qui perd son statu de valeur réfuge : €/$ 1.3618

 

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TOYOTA : la fin du mythe ?

STRESS TEST : 10 banques sur les 19 devront accroître leur assise financière pour environ 75 mrds de USD. Malgré la baisse compréhensible d'hier, les futures sont positifs, signe que le marché a digéré cette étape.

VIX : cet indicateur de volatilité laisse maintenant penser qu'une correction pourrait se produire ou en tout cas que certains le craignent. En effet, on approche d'une résistance majeure sur le S&P notamment.

PETROLE : en pleine forme, se rapproche des 60 USD. A ce rythme, le spectre de l'inflation pourrait hanter les nuits de Jean-Claude et Ben. Ces deux-là vont sans doute continuer à marcher sur des œufs pendant quelques temps encore.

TOYOTA : la fin du mythe ? Le constructeur nippon anticipe une seconde perte annuelle avec des ventes en fortes baisses. Le segment des petites voitures souffre tout autant que les autres.

Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) remonte à 33.4. L'or remonte à 916.4 l'once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est en hausse à 57.3 USD. Le USD est en baisse face à l'EUR à 1.34. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.83. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.77 et le 3 ans à 2.16.

 

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Les banques centrales ont contribué au soutien du prix de l'or

• Première résistance cassée : DJ +2.6%, S&P500 +3.4%, NASDAQ +2.6%, NIKKEI +1.7% (fermé jusqu’à jeudi) et EUROSTOXX +1.8%, et en hausse de 0.6% en ce moment.
  
  

• OR : les banques centrales ont contribué au soutien du métal jaune et les quotas de vente restent d’application, ce qui devrait limiter le retrait de l’or en cas de poursuite de la hausse des bourses.
  
  

• ECONOMIE : l’Europe a revu ses prévisions de croissance … à la baisse et s’attend à une contraction de 4%. C’est donc bien la plus grave crise depuis la seconde Guerre mondiale. Le chômage devrait atteindre un pic en 2010, de même que les déficits publics. Néanmoins, les signes correspondant à la fameuse inflexion apparaissent, notamment dans la construction résidentielle aux USA ou les semi-conducteurs.
  
  

• BANQUES : démenti de la part de BANK OF AMERICA des rumeurs d’augmentation de capital. Les résultats d’UBS au Q1 affichent une perte nette de 2 mrds de CHF. Le titre est aussi cher que CREDIT SUISSE pour moins de perspectives et plus de risque.
  
  

• Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est en baisse à 34.5. L’or remonte à 902.5 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est en hausse à 53.6 USD. Le USD est stable face à l’EUR à 1.33. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.65. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.74 et le 3 ans à 2.17.

 

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Rumeurs que CITIGROUP et BANK OF AMERICA auraient besoin de gros montants en capital frais.

·        Les marchés restent bien orientés. La grippe mexicaine semble n’être qu’un épiphénomène pour les bourses. La période des détachements de dividendes est souvent propice à des prises de bénéfices. Toutefois, la configuration traditionnelle (statistiquement la plus fréquente) de hausse entre octobre et mai ne s’est pas vérifiée cette fois-ci. Si on établit un parallèle avec 2003, on pourrait espérer une poursuite de la tendance. Au plan économique, les nouvelles sont moins mauvaises sans être bonnes pour autant.

·        BANQUES US : Le résultat des stress tests pour les banques US (critères de solvabilité) sera publié ce jeudi. Peut-être aussi un test pour les marchés. Rumeurs que CITIGROUP et BANK OF AMERICA auraient besoin de gros montants en capital frais.

·        AUTOMOBILE : ça bouge et les perdants d’hier sont les gagnants d’aujourd’hui. Inutile de rappeler que les fusions dans ce secteur sont souvent peu efficaces et souvent justifiées davantage par la mégalomanie que par les projets industriels.

·        Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est en forte baisse à 35.3. L’or est en retrait à 895 l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est en hausse à 53 USD. Le USD est stable face à l’EUR à 1.33. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.66. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.71 et le 3 ans à 2.17.

 

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