· Moins mauvais : DJ -0.6%, S&P500 -0.6%, NASDAQ -0.1, NIKKEI +0.9% et EUROSTOXX -1.0% et en hausse de 2.3% en ce moment.
· MATIERES PREMIERES : la production d’acier allemande est au plus bas depuis 16 ans et les commandes ont plongé de 45% au Q4 2008, la plus forte baisse depuis la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale. Ces chiffres sont, comme d’autres implacables mais un sérieux phénomène de déstockage est en train de se produire. Il y aura certainement, dans quelques temps, un manque à ce niveau et même si la demande finale ne redémarre pas sensiblement, le restockage devra se produire, avec à la clé une stabilisation, voire une hausse du cours des matières premières.
· CHINE : un programme d’investissement public gigantesque est en train de se mettre en place. On parle d’au moins 560 mrds de USD sur les quelques années à venir, dont 45% dans le seul transport (10.000 km de lignes ferroviaires devraient posées par an).
· Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) reste à des niveaux à nouveau élevés, à 51. Prise de bénéfices sur l’or à 911 USD l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) remonte à 44.8 USD. Le USD se raffermit à l’ EUR à 1.252. Le spread CMS 10-2 ans repart à la hausse à 1.49. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.74 et le 3 ans à 2.271.
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