vendredi 20 mars 2009

USA: bien que la masse monétaire explose, sa circulation en est toujours quasiment au point mort

·         Prise de bénéfices légitimes : DJ -1.2%, S&P500 -1.3%, NASDAQ -0.5%, NIKKEI -0.3% et EUROSTOXX +1.0% et en baisse de 1.3 en ce moment.

·         La FED poursuit l’administration du remède de cheval, en décidant de racheter pour 300 mrds de dette d’Etat. On constate que bien que la masse monétaire explose, la circulation de celle-ci en est toujours quasiment au point mort. La hauteur des mesures prises de ci de là est à la mesure du problème, sans pour autant le résoudre. Le risque à terme est, naturellement, un retour en force de l’inflation. Prudence donc sur l’obligataire, et en particulier sur les obligations d’Etats.

·         Le marché du travail affiche des statistiques de plus en plus mauvaises. C’est assez normal et cela reste un indicateur tardif, pour l’économie et a fortiori pour la bourse. La bourse pourrait entamer une phase d’amélioration bien avant le marché du travail.

·         Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) rebondit à nouveau à 43.6. L’or est en rebond à 961.2 USD l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) également à 48.8 USD. Le USD est en forte baisse à l’EUR à 1.37. Le spread CMS 10-2 ans est à 1.49. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.724 et le 3 ans à 2.225

 

 

_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited.  Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails.  Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name.  As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it.  The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence.  Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________