De maniere generale, nous preferons les banques suisses a leurs rivaux europeens. Nous pensons qu'elles devraient surperformer le secteur europeen en 2009 grace a leur caractere defensif face au risque de credit mais aussi a la robustesse de leur capitalisation. La principale inquietude reside au niveau des activites de banque d'investissement ou la plupart des revenus issus du core business seront en chutte par rapport a l'annee derniere. Les managements des deux banques ont reagi rapidement, annoncant des mesures de reduction de cout. Meme dans le plus pessimiste des scenarios, nous nous attendons cependant a ce que les activites de banque d'investissement apportent une contribution positive en 2009. UBS et Credit Suisse vont reporter leur resultat en Fevrier (10/02 pour UBS, 11/02 pour CS).
UBS : tgt passe de 25CHF a 24CHF - Buy
CREDIT SUISSE : tgt passe de 42CHF a 40CHF - Hold
NOUVELLES DE MARCHE : Santander, ST Micro, Novartis...
SANTANDER : Un plan de compensation a destination de ses clients leses dans l'affaire Madoff. Les clients individuels pourraient se voir rembourser l'integralite de leur placement, soit 1.38miaEur
ST MICRO : res Q4 avec des revenus a 2.28mia$ vs 2.09mia$, cependant la marge brute est en retrait a 37.5% vs 37.3%. Une guidance des revenus pour le 1Q09 a ete fixe a 1.5-1.85mia$ vs 1.78mia$
BBVA : res en ligne avec un Net Profit a 1.09miaEur vs 1.12miaEur et un Net Operating Profit a 2.34miaEur vs 249miaEur
NOVARTIS : Q4 faible avec un EPS a 0.66$ vs 0.85$ avec des revenus inferieurs de 4% par rapport au consensus. Le dividende a ete propose a 2CHF augmentant le payout ratio a 53%
_____________________________DISCLAIMER____________________________ This e-mail and any attachments are private and confidential. They are intended only for the use of the named recipient. If you are not the intended recipient, please delete this e-mail immediately and notify the sender. Any form of reproduction, copying, modification, distribution and/or publication of this e-mail is prohibited. Please note that the integrity and security of e-mails cannot be guaranteed on the Internet. E-mails can involve substantial risks, e.g. lack of confidentiality, potential manipulation of content and/or senders address, incorrect recipient, viruses, late treatment, etc. ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd bears no responsibility for any loss or damage resulting from the use of e-mails. Please be aware of the fact that a single employee of ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd is not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by his/her sole signature, unless expressly authorised to do so by a specific power of attorney, and is therefore not able to commit ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd by way of an email sent under his/her sole name. As a matter of principle, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd does not accept any orders, revocations of orders or authorizations, blocking of credit card, etc. sent by e-mail. Should ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd nevertheless receive such an e-mail, it is not obliged to act on or respond to it. The present e-mail should not be considered as an invitation to enter into business relations. Based on an agreement reached with you or on your specific or general request, ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd considers itself authorized to contact you via e-mail. Please notify ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd immediately if you do not wish to receive any further e-mail correspondence. Any opinion or advice contained in this e-mail is subject to the terms and conditions expressed in any applicable ING Bank (Switzerland) Ltd terms of business or client engagement letter. _____________________________________________________________________
