L'or passe sous la barrière de $900

·       Le marché a attaché plus d’importance au composant «  personal consumption » du GDP qui était en hausse de +2.2%.

·       Sur le mois d’avril, le S&P500 est en hausse de +9.5%. La meilleure hausse sur un mois depuis Mars 2000.

·       68% des sociétés qui ont déjà annoncé leurs résultats pour ce 1^er trimestre ont des chiffres meilleurs que les estimations.

·       L’Asie aussi très positive : Nikkei +3.9%, Hang Seng +3.2%. Les chiffres sur la production industrielle au Japon montraient une augmentation dans la production pour la première fois depuis 6 mois.

·       Le prix du baril à $51.50. Plus d’optimisme que l’économie globale et aussi la demande pour le pétrole vont rebondir bientôt.

·       L’or passe sous la barrière de $900. On remarque un peu de « profit taking » dès que le prix monte au dessus de ce niveau.

 

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CHRYSLER: accord avec les syndicats - perspective d'une alliance avec FIAT

·         AUTOMOBILE : CHRYSLER parvient à un accord avec les syndicats et la perspective d’une alliance avec FIAT. Dire qu’il n’y a pas si longtemps, on craignait pour les jours de FIAT! On constate que l’industrie automobile est emblématique des temps actuel. Au-delà de la problématique économique, on retrouve les enjeux sociétaux du moment : réduction des excès et protection de l’environnement. David et Goliath ?

·         BANQUES : GOLDMAN SACHS renoue avec le passé. Au cours du premier trimestre, le niveau de risque acceptable pris par GS (Value at Risk) a progressé de 22% et est double de celui de MORGAN STANLEY.  Manifestement difficile de garder un profil bas mais les standards de mesure de performance utilisés par les marchés financiers n’ont pas changé : bénéfices, bénéfices et encore bénéfices. Nouvelles rassurantes sur la solvabilité des grandes banques américaines dont 1 seule présenterait des ratios insuffisants (à confirmer).

·         FORTIS : le gouvernement belge a déclaré vouloir nationaliser le fleuron bancaire en cas de non. PING AN n’est pas favorable au oui. On peut comprendre que nos amis chinois ne comprennent rien au arcanes de notre économie  politique. On n’est sans doute pas près de les revoir.

·         Le VIX (indice de volatilité des actions américaines) est en légère baisse à 36.8. L’or rebondit légèrement à 915 USD l’once et le pétrole (BRENT CRUDE SPOT) est en hausse à 50.1 USD. Le USD est stable face à l’EUR à 1.31. Le spread 10-2 ans est à 1.53. Les CMS 5 ans est à 2.686 et le 3 ans à 2.193.

 

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